How were the costing figures developed?

Bottom-up concept-stage estimation using public benchmarks, comparable projects and published assumptions. The $201.4 billion headline is generated from a reproducible 53-investment ledger. A mechanical -25%/+50% stress gives about $151.1 billion to $302.1 billion. The 31 profiled investments have summed line-item bounds of $120.9 billion to $251.9 billion; the 22 supporting allocations are not yet ranged, so those bounds are not presented as a range for the complete register.

What is the confidence range on the $201.4 billion total?

A defensible whole-register probability range is not yet published. A mechanical -25%/+50% stress around $201.4 billion gives about $151.1 billion to $302.1 billion. Separately, the 31 profiled investments sum to $120.9 billion to $251.9 billion; the 22 supporting allocations still need individual ranges. The focused first group contains $9.65 billion of projects, with an indicative public investment envelope of $8.79 billion and a $7.27 billion to $11.33 billion public range.

Why are Growth Precincts publicly owned but operator-leased?

Government builds the platform — solar farm, electrolyser shell, processing halls, port access — and leases capacity to private operators. This separates infrastructure financing (long-term, government-bondable, low-cost-of-capital) from operational risk (commercial, market-facing). Operators bring capital efficiency and product expertise without bearing the platform capex; government keeps the strategic asset and the lease revenue.

What primary sources back the cost benchmarks?

Named primary sources: CSIRO GenCost and the AEMO Integrated System Plan (energy unit costs), BITRE (transport), the AER (regulated-network capex), Infrastructure Australia (cost-estimation methodology), and comparable project actuals such as the Northern Gas Pipeline, Tianqi Kwinana and Marinus Link. High-case overruns are framed with reference-class forecasting (Flyvbjerg) and UK Green Book optimism-bias uplifts. All citations are listed at /citations and linked inline on each precinct page.

Growing Australia

Growing Australia is a practical platform for a stronger, more resilient Australia: 53 investments across six national priorities, designed to strengthen productive capacity, resilience and long-term living standards.

The complete long-term register has a central concept-stage estimate of $201.4 billion and is designed to be delivered gradually. A focused first-stage group is costed at about $10 billion, with the ledger, assumptions and evidence published openly.

Costing model
Citations and sources
Powering Australia
Making It Here
Cyber Australia
Feeding Australia
Our Neighbourhood
Building Australia