How were the costing figures developed?

Bottom-up capital expenditure estimation using benchmark costs from comparable Australian and international projects, government infrastructure databases, CSIRO GenCost, and industry reports. Each line item carries a primary source citation. The headline $169.1 billion is a central (P50) estimate at concept stage (AACE Class 4–5), presented inside a confidence band of roughly $125 billion to $280 billion, with reference-class (optimism-bias) uplift applied to the high case. Each investment is anchored to a named benchmark — CSIRO GenCost, the AEMO Integrated System Plan, BITRE, the AER or a comparable project actual — and carries an honest reliability rating.

What is the confidence range on the $169.1 billion total?

It is a concept-stage estimate (AACE Class 4–5), so the honest accuracy is about -25% to +50%, wider for first-of-a-kind projects. The 26 major investments have a benchmarked base of $131.5 billion; with 21 supporting programs the central estimate is $169.1 billion, sitting inside a band of roughly $125 billion to $280 billion (summed lows to summed highs — a deliberately wide, conservative treatment at concept stage). Every investment carries its own range and reliability rating.

Why are Growth Precincts publicly owned but operator-leased?

Government builds the platform — solar farm, electrolyser shell, processing halls, port access — and leases capacity to private operators. This separates infrastructure financing (long-term, government-bondable, low-cost-of-capital) from operational risk (commercial, market-facing). Operators bring capital efficiency and product expertise without bearing the platform capex; government keeps the strategic asset and the lease revenue.

What primary sources back the cost benchmarks?

Named primary sources: CSIRO GenCost and the AEMO Integrated System Plan (energy unit costs), BITRE (transport), the AER (regulated-network capex), Infrastructure Australia (cost-estimation methodology), and comparable project actuals such as the Northern Gas Pipeline, Tianqi Kwinana and Marinus Link. High-case overruns are framed with reference-class forecasting (Flyvbjerg) and UK Green Book optimism-bias uplifts. All citations are listed at /citations and linked inline on each precinct page.

Growing Australia

Growing Australia is a fully-costed $169.1B sovereign industry plan to reduce cost-of-living pressure by rebuilding domestic capability in energy, manufacturing, cyber, food and regional partnerships.

The platform contains 47 investments across 26 Growth Precincts, with full costing assumptions and primary-source citations.

Costing model
Citations and sources
Powering Australia
Making It Here
Cyber Australia
Feeding Australia
Our Neighbourhood